Cereal prices are dictated by geopolitics more than drought
The producers of wheat and maize in Serbia should not expect major fluctuations in the current price of wheat, as well as maize, whose yield was significantly destroyed by drought, if there are no extraordinary disturbances on the geopolitical scene, claims director of the Product Exchange in Novi Sad, Milos Janjic.
„A nearly stable level of wheat and corn prices should be expected, if there is no geopolitical impact and no new sanctions are imposed on Russia, as the largest wheat producer in the world, which would prevent its export,“ Janjic told the Beta agency.
He said that increased wheat production in Russia, Australia, Canada and China compensated for the shortage of production in Europe, so Russia will have 42 million tons available for export from record-breaking 88 million tons, and Canada can distribute 26 million tons of produced 35 million tons to a foreign market.
The total wheat crop in the world, he said, is 779.6 million tons, and consumption is 788.6 million tons, but the reserves are 267 million tons, which is more than 30 percent of consumption.
Janjic said that the total maize crop in the world is 1.179 billion tons and it is lower than last year, when it was 1.218 billion tons, while Serbia expects a surplus for export of about one million tons.
It is estimated that, as he said, the average corn yield in Serbia could be about 5.5 tons per hectare, so about 5.5 million tons of yield are expected from about 950,000 hectares of sown area, and about 4.5 million tons are needed for domestic purposes.