World Bank RAISES forecast for Serbia, neighbours BETTER than us
In an updated autumn report on the world economic outlook, the World Bank increased Serbia’s growth forecast for 2021 by one percentage point, to 6.0 percent.
At the same time, the World Bank raised the estimate of the growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) of Serbia for 2022 to 4.5 percent from 3.7 percent, as it forecasted in June, while it raised the growth projection for 2023 by 0.1 percentage point to 4.0 percent.
The Serbian economy has begun to show signs of recovery from the effects of the coronavirus pandemic in the first half of 2021. In the first trimester, Serbia achieved GDP growth of 1.8 percent year-on-year. The growth accelerated in the second quarter and it is estimated at 13.7 percent, which is significantly above expectations, the World Bank points out.
As a result, Serbia’s GDP growth for 2021 has been revised upwards to 6.0 percent from the previously forecast 5.0 percent, as predicted in June, according to the autumn forecast of the international financial institution.
The report states that the rapid export growth prompted a recovery. During the second trimester, however, the drivers of growth changed, so consumption had the main impact on GDP growth.
The World Bank points out that state support to companies for the payment of salaries to workers and cash transfers to citizens in 2020 helped prevent a hike in poverty.
The World Bank expects that Serbia’s economic recovery will continue in the second half of the year, and growth will be additionally supported by a package of measures to support citizens and the economy, with the value of approximately 4.5 percent of GDP.
When it comes to the economies in the neighbouring area, the World Bank expects Bosnia and Herzegovina to grow by 4.0 percent this year, and they also anticipate a growth rate of 7.6 percent in Croatia, 10.8 percent in Montenegro and 4.6 in North Macedonia.